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Canada's Banks Are Forecasting A Continued Decline In Home Prices

How often do Canada's largest banks agree on anything? It just so happens that they are all projecting a continued significant decline in real estate. The latest project is courtesy of the TD Bank:


TD is calling a sharp drop for Canadian home prices after the huge pandemic run-up. Their forecast Q

It’s a substantial drop in home prices but not enough to correct the run up following 2020 rate cuts.

“Our forecasted decline in national home prices would only partially retrace the 46% runup over the course of the pandemic,” explained Rishi Sondhi, an economist at the bank.


Canada's largest bank, RBC is calling for:


RBC sees prices falling 30% over the next 12 months in this forecast. Housing would then see compound annual growth averaging 4.2% over the following 4 years.


For a complete outlook on home buying and selling consult the following articles:


RBC sees prices falling 30% over the next 12 months in this forecast. Housing would then see compound annual growth averaging 4.2% over the following 4 years.


The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation have published its 5-year outlook for the housing market with a balanced view of the upcoming years:


We expect the growth in prices, sales levels, and housing starts to moderate from recent highs but remain elevated in 2022. Robust GDP growth, higher employment and net migration will support demand.


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Better Dwelling

TD is the latest bank to call a deep real estate correction for Canadian real estate prices. The country’s second-largest bank is now forecasting a 25% price drop nationally. That number is peak (Q1 2022) to trough (Q2 2023), an “unprecedented decline,” said the bank. Due to the price surge since 2020, they don’t see it causing wider economic fallout.


Canada’s largest bank made another downward revision to its risk forecast. RBC’s base case forecast assumes a price drop of 5.6% over the next 12-months. They previously said they’re placing more weight to the adverse scenario, however. In that case, home prices would fall up to 30%, which is closer to what they said a few weeks prior.


CMHC Outlook

Our Housing Market Outlook provides forward-looking analysis into Canada’s housing markets. This helps anticipate emerging trends in Canada's new home, resale and rental housing segments and their potential impacts on affordability and other housing challenges at the national and local level.



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